Saturday, January 19, 2008

Recession? Blog chatter vs. Prediction Markets

Aaron Scfiff has a great data problem on his blog at Does talking about a recession in blogs correlate with the probablility of a recession given in a prediction market? (see his blog for the caveats in the data).

The relationship is pretty intruguing. But I wonder whether he has captured the entire story. What about that elusive third factor that drives both? What about the amount of time 'recession' occurs in the old media, how many times by politicians. There appear to be two reversals around 9/14/07 and 10/26/07 -- are these correlated with major events or stories? I had just blogged about a great data problem for student econometricians and I think this one is even better. Again this one could be loosed on students for a PBL exercise and I just may.

Aaron goes on to posit a relationship and I wonder if the relationship has trend or drift. Facinating stuff. Thanks Aaron.

1 comment:

  1. Let’s face it; we are currently enduring one of the longest recessions that we have had since the Great Depression, being exceeded by only two others. As we see it nowadays, the unemployment rate is increasing. And all the basic commodities is on the rise. Could we possibly be facing another economic disaster like we did in the 1930's? America’s habits of consumption are unprecedented across the globe. There is no other nation, which consumes more than we do. We are a nation that never fails for wanting the latest and greatest of everything and if we can't afford it, there is an abundance of financing options such as short-term installment loans, payday loans, or credit card cash advances that help us to obtain it. Despite the economic downturn in this country we must remember to be thankful, as even in our current state we have more than most could ever dream of being thankful for. We have lots of options to choose from and to help us in our current financial mess. So, wake up America, count your blessings, and be cautiously proactive in limiting your consumption habits. Practice conservation so that you will have more yourself as well as more to give others.